Stellantis factories in Italy are finally producing more vehicles again, but the turnaround comes at a striking moment for Canada’s auto industry. Union data released October 6 show Stellantis assembled 340,745 vehicles in Italy during the first nine months of 2026, a 28.3% increase from the same period last year.
Across the Atlantic, Canada is fighting a very different battle. Brampton Assembly remains idled after losing planned Jeep Compass production to Illinois, Stellantis is considering selling the facility, and Windsor workers are facing another three weeks of production downtime as the company points to tariffs and consumer demand. The two situations are not a simple transfer of work from Canada to Italy, but together they show how aggressively global automakers are reshuffling production as governments compete to protect factories, investment and thousands of manufacturing jobs.
Italy Is Rebounding From an Exceptionally Weak 2025
The headline number from Italy is substantial. FIM-CISL, the union that tracks Stellantis production across the country, reported 340,745 vehicles built during the first nine months of 2026, compared with 265,490 during the same period in 2025. Passenger-car production rose even faster than the overall total, climbing 36.7% to 206,945 units. Commercial-vehicle output increased 17.3% to 133,800 units.
Those gains are meaningful, but the comparison starts from an unusually depressed base. Stellantis produced 379,706 vehicles in Italy during all of 2025, including only 213,706 passenger cars, according to FIM-CISL figures reported by Reuters. That passenger-car result was the lowest since 1954. The union now expects total Italian production to reach roughly 450,000 vehicles in 2026, which would end two consecutive years of declining output. It is a recovery rather than a return to the production levels Italy once considered normal, and that distinction helps put the eye-catching 28% increase into perspective.
New Models Are Giving Italian Plants Something They Badly Needed
Two factories are doing much of the heavy lifting. Mirafiori produced 46,323 vehicles through September, an increase of 151.1% from a year earlier, while Melfi reached 47,580 units, up 77.2%. The introduction of the Fiat 500 Hybrid at Mirafiori and the new Jeep Compass at Melfi has been central to those gains. Pomigliano, home to the Fiat Panda and other models, produced 103,500 vehicles and increased output 12.6%.
The figures illustrate one of the basic realities of automotive manufacturing: factories live or die by product allocation. Modern assembly facilities require enormous investment and large workforces, but neither guarantees high output if attractive vehicles are not assigned to the plant. Melfi’s Compass provides a particularly interesting comparison for Canadians because another Jeep Compass program had previously been intended for Brampton. They are not the same production allocation, and Italy’s increase should not be portrayed as work transferred directly from Ontario. Still, the contrast illustrates why Canadian unions and governments place so much importance on securing specific future models rather than accepting general assurances about a company’s commitment to a country.
The Italian Recovery Still Has Serious Weak Spots
Stellantis’ improvement is far from uniform. Cassino, which has built premium Alfa Romeo and Maserati vehicles, was the only Italian passenger-car assembly operation to record another year-over-year decline through September. Production fell 37.1% to just 8,897 vehicles, and FIM-CISL expects the plant to finish 2026 at only around 12,000 units. That leaves a facility with significant manufacturing capacity operating at extremely low volume.
Even the plants leading the recovery are encountering complications. FIM-CISL cut its full-year Stellantis production forecast to about 450,000 vehicles from roughly 500,000 anticipated after the first half. Hybrid Fiat 500 output has been affected by component shortages and weaker-than-expected orders, leading to additional downtime at Mirafiori. The union also notes that overall production remains well below 2023, when Stellantis built more than 750,000 vehicles in Italy, and far short of the one-million-vehicle ambition previously discussed with the Italian government. The lesson for Canada is important: winning a new vehicle can revive a factory, but keeping that plant busy depends on demand, supply and future product decisions.
Brampton Has Become the Centre of Canada’s Stellantis Fight
Canada’s most difficult Stellantis problem is in Brampton. Vehicle production there stopped in December 2023 as the company prepared to retool the Ontario factory for a new generation of vehicles, including a planned Jeep Compass. More than 2,200 Unifor Local 1285 members have remained on layoff. Retooling was paused in February 2025, and Stellantis subsequently announced that future Compass production would instead go to its reopened Belvidere Assembly Plant in Illinois.
The uncertainty deepened in 2026. Stellantis informed Unifor in August that it was seriously considering closing and selling Brampton Assembly. By September, the company had signed a memorandum of understanding with Canadian armoured-vehicle manufacturer Roshel concerning a potential sale. Stellantis has argued that Roshel could provide a path toward restoring sustainable industrial activity at the property. Unifor sees the issue differently: a defence manufacturer operating the site would not fulfill the union’s goal of preserving Stellantis automotive assembly in Brampton. As of late September, the disagreement remained a central reason contract negotiations between Stellantis and Unifor were at an impasse.
Ottawa Has Already Used Money and Tariffs as Leverage
The federal government’s concern goes beyond the loss of one vehicle nameplate. In 2022, Ottawa committed up to $529 million toward a planned $3.6-billion Stellantis investment that was intended to transition the Windsor and Brampton assembly operations toward electrified-vehicle production. Ontario pledged up to another $513 million. Federal records later indicated that approximately $222.4 million had been disbursed toward the Stellantis project before the dispute over Brampton intensified.
Ottawa responded forcefully after the company shifted its Canadian production plans. The federal government cut Stellantis’ annual quota for tariff-free imports from the United States under Canada’s automotive remission framework by 50%. It also initiated a formal dispute-resolution process over Stellantis’ commitments and paused future payments connected with the agreement. The remission system is specifically designed to reward automakers that maintain Canadian production and complete promised investments. That turns access to the Canadian market into negotiating leverage. Rather than merely asking companies to keep factories open, Ottawa is increasingly tying financial support and tariff treatment to measurable domestic manufacturing activity.
Windsor Is Still Producing Cars, but Its Schedule Has Become Unsettled
Windsor Assembly shows why keeping a plant open is only part of the challenge. The operation builds Chrysler minivans and the Dodge Charger, including gasoline and electric versions of the new-generation muscle car. In late 2025, Stellantis had been sufficiently optimistic about demand that it announced plans to add a third shift and as many as 1,500 jobs in early 2026. Less than a year later, the factory is experiencing repeated downtime.
Stellantis said in early October that Windsor would stop production during the weeks of October 19, October 26 and November 2. More than 6,400 employees had already been affected by two weeks of downtime immediately before the latest announcement. The company attributed its production adjustments to changing consumer demand and the impact of tariffs. Workers therefore face an unusual situation: Windsor has recently received important new products and remains a major Stellantis assembly operation, yet its production calendar is increasingly unpredictable. For surrounding parts manufacturers, logistics businesses and other suppliers, repeated assembly interruptions can create ripple effects well beyond the factory gates.
Stellantis Is Putting Enormous Resources Into U.S. Manufacturing
Canadian concerns became more acute when Stellantis unveiled its largest U.S. investment program in company history. In October 2025, the automaker announced plans to invest US$13 billion over four years, add more than 5,000 American jobs and increase its annual U.S. finished-vehicle production by 50%. The program covers plants in Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Indiana and includes several new or relocated vehicle programs.
Belvidere is particularly relevant to Canada. Stellantis plans to spend more than US$600 million reopening the Illinois assembly plant to manufacture the Jeep Cherokee and Compass, with production expected to begin in 2027 and approximately 3,300 jobs anticipated. The Compass allocation had previously been planned for Brampton. Stellantis’ broader strategy also includes a new midsize truck in Toledo, a new large SUV at Warren Truck in Michigan and the next Dodge Durango in Detroit. The company has described stronger U.S. growth as a strategic priority. For Canada, that creates an increasingly difficult competitive environment when American tariffs provide another financial incentive to manufacture vehicles on the U.S. side of the border.
Canada Has Much More at Stake Than One Assembly Plant
Automotive manufacturing remains one of Canada’s most economically important industrial sectors. Federal figures say the industry supports more than 500,000 workers when the broader ecosystem is counted, contributes more than $16 billion annually to gross domestic product and directly supports about 125,000 jobs. Canada produced more than 1.2 million passenger vehicles in 2025. Ontario remains the centre of that activity, hosting major plants operated by Stellantis, Ford, General Motors, Honda and Toyota.
The industry’s dependence on the United States makes today’s trade environment particularly dangerous. More than 90% of Canadian-made vehicles and approximately 60% of Canadian-made auto parts are exported to the U.S. Canadian vehicles have faced a 25% American tariff on their non-U.S. content since April 2025, even when they comply with CUSMA rules. Global Affairs Canada’s 2026 State of Trade report found Canadian motor-vehicle and parts manufacturing GDP declined 1.4% in 2025 after falling 10.7% in 2024, while employment in the sector dropped 3.4% last year. Every lost assembly program therefore matters to a much larger network of suppliers and communities.
The Next Fight Is About Securing Products, Not Just Saving Buildings
Canada has responded with a broader automotive strategy, including up to $3 billion from the Strategic Response Fund and up to $100 million through the Regional Tariff Response Initiative for automotive manufacturing and supply-chain investment. The federal government has also redesigned policy around a simple objective: companies receiving Canadian support should have strong incentives to keep producing vehicles and components in Canada rather than using the country primarily as a sales market.
Stellantis will be an important test of whether those tools are strong enough. Windsor still has active vehicle programs and a major workforce, while Brampton’s future remains unresolved. A Roshel acquisition could put manufacturing activity back into the long-idled Brampton facility, but it would represent a fundamentally different outcome from restoring high-volume automobile assembly. Meanwhile, Italy’s 2026 numbers demonstrate what happens when fresh products begin flowing through underused factories: output can change quickly. Canada’s challenge is ensuring the next round of Stellantis product decisions includes Canadian assembly lines. In today’s auto industry, keeping a factory building standing is no longer sufficient. The crucial prize is having vehicles assigned to it year after year.
