Toronto’s affordability crisis is no longer only about how much residents pay each month; it is increasingly about whether younger adults see a future in the city at all. New Ipsos polling for the Toronto Region Board of Trade found that 52% of Gen Z respondents said affordability concerns could make them leave Toronto within the next five years, compared with 46% of Millennials and 37% of residents overall. The finding lands as rents and home prices have softened from recent peaks but remain high relative to what many younger workers can reasonably carry. It also points to a broader economic risk: when housing, daily expenses and career prospects stop lining up, a city can lose not only residents, but the workers, entrepreneurs and families expected to shape its next decade.
Half of Gen Z Are Considering an Exit
The 52% figure is striking, but it is best read as a warning signal rather than a forecast that half of Toronto’s Gen Z population will actually leave. Ipsos conducted the online poll between July 20 and August 4, 2026, among 801 Toronto adults using its I-Say panel. Across the full sample, 37% said they were likely to leave Toronto within five years because of affordability concerns. The share rose sharply among younger respondents, reaching 52% for Gen Z and 46% for Millennials. That generational split matters because younger adults are more likely to be forming households, starting careers and deciding whether Toronto is where they want to build long-term financial lives.
There is also an important methodological caution. The poll’s stated overall accuracy is within 4.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, but subgroup results such as the Gen Z figure come from fewer respondents and therefore carry more uncertainty than the citywide number. Even so, the direction of the result is consistent with other Toronto-area research. A separate 2026 TRREB report cited Ipsos polling showing 66% of Ontarians aged 18 to 34 were the group most likely to consider leaving the GTA within five years, with housing affordability and remote-work flexibility among the key drivers. The newest result therefore looks less like an isolated spike and more like part of an established pattern.
Affordability Has Become Toronto’s Dominant Economic Concern
The poll shows that affordability is not sitting alongside Toronto’s economic concerns; for many residents, it is the economic concern. Seventy-six per cent identified the cost of living as one of the city’s top challenges, while 53% ranked it as the single most important economic issue. At the same time, 55% said Toronto’s prosperity is on the wrong track, and 57% felt it is becoming harder to get ahead than it used to be. Those responses help explain why relocation can start to feel less like an extreme decision and more like a practical calculation. A higher salary matters less when rent, transportation, groceries and other essentials absorb a growing share of take-home pay.
That sense of pressure is also tied to how residents view Toronto’s future competitiveness. In the same polling, 92% said the cost of living affects the city’s future prosperity and competitiveness, 89% said housing affordability does, and 87% pointed to access to good-paying jobs. The connection is intuitive: a city can offer dense job networks, culture and opportunity, yet still become difficult to justify financially if wage gains are repeatedly consumed by basic costs. For a young worker comparing Toronto with Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa or a smaller Ontario centre, the decision may not revolve around finding a “cheap” place. It can revolve around whether another city offers a better chance to save, buy a home or start a family.
Lower Rents Have Not Made Toronto Cheap
Toronto’s rental market has become somewhat less punishing than it was at the peak, but that does not mean it has become inexpensive. Statistics Canada reported an average asking rent of $2,660 for a two-bedroom apartment in the Toronto census metropolitan area in the first quarter of 2026. By July, private-market trackers were still placing typical Toronto rents near the mid-$2,500 range. Rentals.ca reported apartment and condo rents averaging about $2,577 in July, while its Toronto listings data put the broader average near $2,580. Those figures are lower than some recent highs, yet they still require a large monthly commitment before utilities, transportation, food, debt payments or savings are considered.
The gap becomes clearer when Toronto’s own affordability definitions are placed beside market rents. For 2026, the City set its official affordable-rent level at $1,426 for a one-bedroom and $2,055 for a two-bedroom, based on income and average-market-rent formulas in the Official Plan. Market asking rents remain well above those thresholds for many units. That difference is especially consequential for younger renters who are trying to build emergency savings or a down payment at the same time. A few hundred dollars a month can become several thousand dollars over a year, and the trade-offs are rarely abstract: a smaller unit, more roommates, a longer commute, less retirement saving or postponing a move out of the family home.
Falling Home Prices Still Leave a High Entry Barrier
Falling home prices have improved the arithmetic at the margins, but ownership remains a distant goal for many younger Torontonians. TRREB’s July 2026 Home Price Index put the composite benchmark for the City of Toronto at about $928,200, down 3.8% from a year earlier. The benchmark for a Toronto condominium apartment was about $551,900, down roughly 7.1% year over year. Those declines sound meaningful, but a lower price is not the same as an affordable price. Even a condo in the mid-$500,000s can require a substantial down payment, mortgage qualification, property taxes, condo fees and closing costs, all while a first-time buyer may still be paying high rent.
The wider GTA tells a similar story. TRREB reported an average selling price of just over $1 million in July, down 4.5% from a year earlier. Softer prices and more negotiating room can help established buyers with equity, but the benefit is less dramatic for someone trying to accumulate a first down payment from wages. That helps explain why affordability debates increasingly focus on the time it takes to reach milestones rather than simply whether prices are rising or falling. A 25-year-old renter may look at a market that is technically cheaper than last year and still conclude that ownership is moving too slowly into reach. Five years can therefore become a natural horizon for deciding whether to stay or go.
Young Workers Are Still Facing a Tougher Job Market
Housing costs are only one side of the pressure. Younger Canadians are also navigating a labour market that, while improving, remains more difficult for youth than it was before the pandemic. Statistics Canada reported a national youth unemployment rate of 12.6% in July 2026, above the 2017-to-2019 pre-pandemic average of 10.8%. Toronto’s overall unemployment rate was 6.7% in July, down significantly from 9.0% a year earlier, which is encouraging. Yet early-career workers are especially sensitive to job quality, hours, wage progression and the time it takes to secure stable employment. Those factors determine whether high urban living costs feel temporary or structural.
Wage growth is helping, but it is not a complete answer. Average hourly wages for Canadian employees were up 2.8% year over year in July, reaching $37.17, according to Statistics Canada. That is an economy-wide figure rather than a Gen Z or Toronto-specific wage, and many younger workers earn below the national average while they establish careers. The practical problem is timing: rent is due now, while promotions, credentials and higher salaries may take years to arrive. A worker can reasonably believe Toronto offers strong long-term career upside and still decide that the near-term cost is too high. That tension is at the heart of the poll’s message about people struggling to “get ahead.”
Toronto Is Already Losing Residents to Other Places
Toronto does not have to wait five years to see evidence that people are already choosing other places. Statistics Canada estimated that the Toronto census metropolitan area lost a net 64,794 people to other parts of Ontario and another 12,698 to other provinces between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025. Those losses were partly offset by births and immigration, but the CMA’s total population was essentially flat over the year. The figures do not prove that affordability caused every move, and they cover people of all ages. Still, they show that domestic out-migration is large enough to matter and that Toronto competes with both nearby communities and other provinces for residents.
The destination pattern also fits the affordability story. Statistics Canada reported that Calgary and Edmonton continued to post strong population growth and gains from interprovincial migration, while Toronto recorded net losses. Within Ontario, moving beyond the Toronto region can provide access to less expensive housing even when a job remains tied to the GTA through hybrid or remote arrangements. For younger households, relocation can be a staged decision rather than a dramatic break: first moving farther from downtown, then beyond the city, and eventually to another region if costs and commuting remain manageable. The Ipsos result captures that willingness before the move happens, while migration data show that a meaningful share of residents have already acted.
Affordability Is Becoming a Talent-Retention Problem
For employers, the risk is not simply that Toronto becomes less popular. It is that the city becomes harder to staff. The new Ipsos polling found 76% of residents were concerned Toronto could lose talented workers and young professionals to other cities. That concern has a long economic history. A 2021 Toronto Region Board of Trade and WoodGreen analysis estimated that the GTA’s shortage of affordable workforce housing was costing the regional economy and employers between $5.88 billion and $7.98 billion annually through wage pressures, turnover, recruitment challenges, long commutes and lost productivity. The estimate is several years old, but the mechanism it describes remains highly relevant to today’s affordability debate.
The business problem is most visible in jobs that cannot simply move online. Hospitals, schools, restaurants, construction sites, retail stores and public services need workers physically present. When those employees must live farther away to find housing they can afford, employers face longer commutes, a smaller recruitment pool and greater turnover risk. The Board of Trade has repeatedly framed housing as economic infrastructure for exactly this reason. Toronto’s challenge is therefore broader than retaining high-paid technology or finance workers. A functioning city also depends on nurses, teachers, tradespeople, hospitality workers and service employees being able to live within a reasonable distance of the places that need them.
Residents Want Faster Action — and Results They Can Feel
The political message in the poll is unusually clear: residents want speed. Fifty-nine per cent said Toronto needs faster decision-making, 57% wanted more willingness to try new solutions, and 52% called for a stronger focus on economic growth. Another 45% said the city should move more quickly on major challenges even when solutions require difficult trade-offs, compared with 15% who preferred a more cautious approach. Those numbers do not prescribe one housing policy, but they show impatience with incremental progress. Affordability is being judged by lived outcomes — the rent due next month, the commute next week and the home purchase that still feels years away — rather than by the number of plans announced.
Toronto does have major housing initiatives underway. The City says 92,567 homes were created between January 2022 and June 30, 2026 toward its provincial target of 285,000 by 2031, including 6,468 in the first half of 2026. In August, Toronto and the federal government also announced up to $2.7 billion to help deliver 5,600 rental homes, with the City contributing another $703.7 million in funding and incentives. The scale of the Gen Z response suggests the test will be whether such programs translate into homes that younger workers can actually afford before relocation becomes the easier choice. Toronto’s appeal remains powerful; the poll’s warning is that appeal alone may no longer be enough.
