Canada’s used-vehicle market is showing unexpected resilience as prices south of the border fall much faster. New industry analysis reveals that Canadian wholesale vehicle values declined just 0.68% over five weeks ending October 3, 2026, compared with a 3.33% drop in the United States during the same period.
The difference is striking. Despite close economic ties, shared automotive manufacturers, and similar vehicle lineups, the two countries are experiencing noticeably different pricing conditions.
Canadian Black Book’s weekly data suggests that demand for certain affordable vehicles remains strong, even as seasonal depreciation begins affecting the broader market. Meanwhile, American wholesale prices are declining considerably faster than historical autumn averages.
For Canadian dealerships, vehicle owners, and prospective buyers, the findings raise important questions about trade-in values, vehicle affordability, and whether the country’s used-car market can maintain its relative strength through the final months of 2026.
Canadian Used Vehicles Are Depreciating Nearly Five Times More Slowly Than American Models
The most revealing finding comes from a comparison of five consecutive weeks of wholesale pricing data. According to an October 13 analysis by Canadian automotive valuation platform TradeBasis, Canadian used-vehicle values declined approximately 0.68% between the weeks ending September 5 and October 3, 2026. Across the same reporting periods, American wholesale values fell approximately 3.33%. The analysis combines weekly information published by Canadian Black Book and its American counterpart, Black Book. Although both countries experienced declining values, the American reduction was almost five times larger in percentage terms. This represents a substantial difference for two markets that share many vehicle manufacturers, popular models, and automotive supply chains.
The comparison becomes particularly meaningful when considering how dealerships purchase and sell vehicles. Wholesale prices influence auction bidding, inventory acquisition, trade-in assessments, and expectations about future resale values. A vehicle that retains more of its wholesale value may provide its owner with stronger negotiating opportunities when replacing it. However, the percentages represent aggregate market movements rather than depreciation experienced by every individual vehicle. A particular pickup truck, luxury sedan, or electric vehicle could perform very differently depending on its age, mileage, condition, and regional demand. The findings therefore indicate relative strength in Canada’s wholesale market, not a guarantee that individual Canadian vehicles are maintaining their value.
Canada’s Fall Depreciation Is Also Running Below Historical Seasonal Averages
Autumn typically brings downward pressure on used-vehicle values. Demand often slows after the summer driving season, dealerships prepare for incoming model-year inventory, and wholesale buyers become more cautious about purchasing vehicles that might remain unsold through winter. Canadian Black Book measures this seasonal pattern against comparable weeks between 2017 and 2019, providing a benchmark from before the unusual pricing conditions associated with the pandemic. During the five weeks ending October 3, Canadian wholesale values would historically have declined approximately 1.21%. Instead, the market lost only about 0.68%, suggesting depreciation was occurring at little more than half its typical seasonal pace.
The consistency of the figures makes the development more significant. Canadian Black Book reported weekly declines of 0.05%, 0.19%, 0.18%, 0.14%, and 0.12% across the five-week period. Every weekly reduction was smaller than the corresponding 2017–2019 average. The latest comparable week, ending October 3, produced a 0.12% overall decline against a historical average of 0.22%. This does not mean used vehicles are becoming more valuable across Canada. Prices are still softening, but the adjustment has been considerably more gradual than seasonal history would suggest. For families planning to replace an older vehicle, that distinction matters because it may influence the amount they can recover through a trade-in or private sale.
American Wholesale Prices Are Falling Faster Than Normal as Trucks and SUVs Struggle
American wholesale values followed a considerably steeper trajectory during the same five weeks. Black Book reported weekly market declines of 0.53%, 0.72%, 0.69%, 0.71%, and 0.73%. When compounded, these reductions amount to approximately 3.33%. The difference from historical seasonal patterns is particularly noticeable in the truck and SUV categories. During the week ending October 3, American truck and SUV wholesale values declined 0.80%, compared with a 0.31% average reduction for comparable weeks between 2017 and 2019. Passenger cars performed somewhat better, although their values still fell 0.52% that week. The manufacturer, vehicle age, body style, and condition of individual units all influence how severely they are affected.
The weakness continued into the following reporting period. Black Book’s October 13 release showed American wholesale values falling another 0.70% during the week ending October 10. Truck and SUV prices declined 0.75%, while passenger cars lost 0.53%. American auction conversion remained at approximately 56%, indicating that vehicles continued selling despite the downward pressure. Black Book described buyers as increasingly selective, favouring clean vehicles with desirable equipment while discounting examples with higher mileage or less appealing configurations. The latest American figures are not included in the original five-week comparison because matching Canadian results for October 10 were not available in the same published dataset. Nevertheless, they demonstrate that American depreciation pressure had continued beyond the initial measurement period.
September’s Retention Index Shows a Similar Divide but Reveals Longer-Term Weakness
Separate monthly figures from Canadian Black Book reinforce the impression that Canadian used-vehicle values have recently stabilized. Its Used Vehicle Retention Index stood at 127.5 points in September 2026, unchanged from August. The organization described this as the third consecutive month of relative stability, with the index declining only 0.4% since June. The American picture was considerably weaker over the corresponding period. Black Book reported that its seasonally adjusted U.S. Used Vehicle Retention Index declined 3.1% in September alone, falling from 144.3 points in August to 139.7. Its analysts identified full-size pickups, minivans, mid-size cars, and large crossovers among the segments experiencing significant pressure.
However, the annual figures provide an important qualification. Canada’s September retention index remained 7.6% below its level from the previous year, despite recent monthly stability. The American index was down 3.3% year over year. This demonstrates why short-term depreciation trends should not be confused with long-term vehicle value performance. The monthly retention indexes also use specific vehicle populations and adjustments, meaning their numerical levels are not directly interchangeable. Canadian Black Book calculates its index using the wholesale values of vehicles generally between two and six years old, adjusted for factors including mileage, age, and condition. The overall picture is therefore mixed: Canada’s market is outperforming the United States over the latest five-week window, but that does not erase depreciation accumulated over the preceding year.
Small Crossovers Are Defying the Broader Canadian Used-Vehicle Slowdown
One of the strongest performers in Canada’s used market has been the subcompact crossover and SUV category. Canadian Black Book reported wholesale value increases of 1.01%, 0.68%, 0.38%, 0.13%, and 0.09% across the five weeks ending October 3. While the national market declined every week, this particular category increased in value throughout the period. The results demonstrate how a relatively small group of vehicles can behave very differently from the overall market. Subcompact crossovers combine manageable dimensions, practical cargo space, and potentially lower purchase costs than larger SUVs. Many models also offer all-wheel drive, making them attractive to consumers shopping for everyday transportation ahead of colder Canadian weather.
The trend is especially relevant to buyers balancing transportation needs against household budgets. A family looking for a practical vehicle in Ontario or Alberta may find a smaller crossover more affordable to purchase and operate than a full-size SUV. Dealers anticipating winter demand may also compete for clean, well-maintained examples with desirable equipment. However, not every subcompact crossover includes all-wheel drive, and the published segment figures do not establish identical demand for every configuration. Small pickup trucks also demonstrated pockets of strength, including a 0.26% increase during the week ending September 26. These movements suggest that Canadian buyers are still supporting selected practical vehicle categories, even while broader wholesale values soften. The strongest vehicles are not necessarily the newest or most expensive, but those offering a compelling combination of usefulness, condition, and affordability.
Compact Vans and Large SUVs Are Experiencing Much Sharper Price Declines
Canada’s relatively stable overall market contains several categories experiencing substantial depreciation. Compact vans were among the weakest performers in late September and early October. Canadian Black Book recorded a 1.44% decline during the week ending September 26, followed by another 1.20% reduction during the week ending October 3. Full-size crossovers and SUVs also struggled, falling 1.21% during the week ending September 19. These losses are considerably larger than the corresponding overall weekly market declines. They demonstrate that a modest national average can conceal sharp changes affecting particular vehicle owners and dealerships. Vehicle category, operating expenses, and consumer preferences can all influence whether a used model retains its appeal.
Minivans illustrate how uneven the market has become. Canadian minivan wholesale values fell 1.06% during the week ending September 26 but recovered 0.34% the following week. American minivans experienced far greater pressure during that same October 3 reporting period, with Black Book recording a 2.40% decline. The difference reinforces the need to examine individual markets rather than assume every vehicle category follows the same depreciation pattern on both sides of the border. For a business selling used commercial vans, or a household planning to trade an aging large SUV, these segment-specific trends may be more relevant than the national average. The figures also remind dealers that holding an unpopular vehicle through several weeks of declining wholesale values can quickly reduce its expected resale margin.
Canadian Dealer Asking Prices Remain Elevated Despite Lower Wholesale Values
Wholesale depreciation does not immediately translate into equivalent price reductions on dealership lots. Canadian Black Book reported that the 14-day moving average asking price for used vehicles was approximately C$38,250 in early October, based on around 165,000 listings from Canadian dealers. In early September, the average was approximately C$38,500 across roughly 160,000 advertised vehicles. The difference suggests some softening in advertised prices, but considerably less dramatic movement than the American wholesale market experienced. These figures also demonstrate why a vehicle’s advertised retail price should not be confused with the amount a dealership might offer for that same vehicle as a trade-in.
Dealerships must account for transportation, mechanical inspections, repairs, detailing, financing expenses, and the possibility that inventory will remain unsold. Those expenses create a difference between the wholesale amount paid to acquire a vehicle and the price advertised to consumers. Average listing prices are also affected by the types of vehicles being offered. A greater proportion of expensive pickups or luxury SUVs can raise the overall average even if comparable individual models are becoming cheaper. For consumers, this means the C$38,250 figure should be treated as a market indicator rather than the expected price of a typical used car. The more useful comparison involves vehicles with similar model years, mileage, equipment, and condition in the same geographic area. A stable national asking-price average does not necessarily mean every Canadian shopper is facing stable prices.
Limited Canadian Used-Vehicle Supply May Be Helping Support Prices
One potential explanation for Canada’s stronger short-term performance is the continued constraint on used-vehicle supply. Canadian Black Book’s February 2026 market outlook forecast a 2.6% decline in the supply of used vehicles up to eight years old during the year. The organization linked the expected shortage partly to affordability pressures and longer vehicle ownership periods. When motorists keep their vehicles for additional years, fewer newer models become available for other consumers to purchase. This can support resale values for desirable used cars and crossovers, particularly when buyers are seeking affordable alternatives to increasingly expensive new vehicles. The supply forecast provides useful context, although it cannot establish precisely how much of the Canada–U.S. price gap is caused by inventory differences.
Auction activity also offers insight into the changing market. Canadian Black Book reported an average monitored auction sale rate of approximately 36% during the week ending September 5. By the week ending September 19, that figure had reached 59.8%. These results are affected by participating auctions, reserve prices, seasonal demand, and the quality of vehicles being offered, so they should not be interpreted as a uniform increase in buyer activity everywhere. By early October, Canadian Black Book said auction inventory had returned to relatively normal-to-high levels, while demand remained strong for higher-quality vehicles. Together, the figures suggest a market where buyers remain active but selective. Scarcity may help support certain values, yet condition and price still determine whether a vehicle attracts competitive bids.
Tariffs and Currency Movements Are Adding to the Canada–U.S. Pricing Divide
The divergence between Canadian and American used-vehicle values is unfolding against significant changes in North American automotive trade. According to J.D. Power Canada data reported in September, vehicles manufactured in the United States represented 28.4% of Canadian new-vehicle sales during the first half of 2026, down from 35.4% one year earlier. The decline coincided with continuing trade disputes and tariffs affecting vehicle imports. Canada has maintained a 25% tariff on certain American-built vehicles that do not qualify for preferential treatment under the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement, along with specific treatment for non-Canadian and non-Mexican content in qualifying vehicles. These policies have complicated cross-border automotive trade and influenced the competitive environment for new vehicles.
Exchange rates represent another potentially important factor. Canadian Black Book reported that the Canadian dollar was trading around US$0.704 in early October. A weaker Canadian dollar can make Canadian vehicles relatively attractive to American buyers when converted into U.S. currency, while making certain American-sourced vehicles more expensive for Canadian purchasers. Those financial relationships could help support domestic wholesale prices, particularly where demand exists for cross-border vehicle transactions. However, the available industry figures do not isolate tariffs or exchange rates as the definitive cause of Canada’s slower depreciation. Differences in inventory, model mix, demand, and buyer preferences may also contribute. The important conclusion is that a shared automotive industry does not necessarily produce identical resale markets, especially when trade policies and currency conditions are changing.
What the Price Gap Means for Canadian Vehicle Owners, Dealerships, and Winter Buyers
The difference between the two markets becomes easier to understand through a hypothetical vehicle worth 30,000 units of local currency at the beginning of the five-week period. Applying Canada’s aggregate 0.68% decline would produce a reduction of approximately C$204 on a C$30,000 benchmark. Applying the American 3.33% decline would produce a reduction of about US$999 on a US$30,000 benchmark. These are illustrations of the percentage movements, not actual appraisals or direct cross-border price comparisons. Real vehicles lose value at different rates, and Canadian and American prices cannot be compared without accounting for currency, specifications, and market conditions. Nevertheless, the example demonstrates why market-specific valuation information matters when negotiating trade-ins, financing inventory, or estimating resale values.
The coming months will determine whether Canada’s relative resilience continues. DesRosiers Automotive Consultants estimated that Canadians purchased approximately 168,000 new vehicles in September, up 3.4% year over year and marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Stronger new-vehicle sales can eventually bring more trade-ins into the used market, although the timing and types of vehicles returned will vary. Canadian Black Book’s 2026 outlook also anticipates continuing differences in depreciation by vehicle segment, powertrain, and age. For dealerships, this reinforces the importance of updating valuations regularly rather than relying on broad North American assumptions. For consumers, the practical lesson is equally important: trade-in offers and advertised prices should be judged against current Canadian comparables. Canada’s used-vehicle market is showing more short-term stability than America’s, but that advantage remains conditional on supply, demand, and wider economic developments.
