Gasoline prices are set to offer drivers in several major Canadian cities a noticeable break on Sunday, September 27. The latest forecast from Canadians for Affordable Energy calls for regular gasoline to fall seven cents per litre in the Greater Toronto Area, Montreal and Vancouver, while Calgary is expected to see an eight-cent decline.
The moves would put the forecast benchmark at 181.9 cents per litre in the GTA, 202.9 cents in Montreal, 204.9 cents in Vancouver and 168.9 cents in Calgary. The timing is significant after another volatile week in energy markets, with U.S. crude and gasoline futures retreating sharply Friday. Still, the relief comes with an important caveat: pump prices remain highly sensitive to wholesale markets, local competition and a geopolitical backdrop that changed again over the weekend.
Sunday’s Forecast Brings a Broad Drop
The expected declines are unusually widespread. Canadians for Affordable Energy forecasts the GTA regular-gas benchmark falling from 188.9 cents per litre on Saturday to 181.9 cents Sunday. Montreal is projected to move from 209.9 to 202.9 cents, while Vancouver is expected to slide from 211.9 to 204.9 cents. Calgary receives the largest forecast reduction, dropping from 176.9 to 168.9 cents per litre.
That does not mean every station will display those exact numbers Sunday morning. These figures are market forecasts rather than regulated retail prices, and individual outlets can move at different speeds. Competition within a neighbourhood can also create noticeable differences between stations only a few kilometres apart. Still, a seven- or eight-cent overnight move is large enough to be visible across much of a metropolitan market. For families filling multiple vehicles, commuters covering long distances or businesses running small fleets, the change is more meaningful than the usual one- or two-cent daily fluctuation.
What Seven or Eight Cents Means on a Fill-Up
A few cents per litre can sound minor until it is multiplied across a full tank. A seven-cent decrease cuts the cost of a 50-litre purchase by $3.50. On 60 litres, the difference rises to $4.20. Calgary’s projected eight-cent decrease represents savings of $4 on 50 litres or $4.80 on a 60-litre fill compared with Saturday’s benchmark.
Those figures become more noticeable for households buying fuel repeatedly. Someone purchasing 50 litres once a week would spend about $182 less over a year if a seven-cent reduction somehow remained in place for that entire period. Sunday’s drop should not be interpreted as a permanent change, but the calculation illustrates why sharp daily swings attract so much attention. Fuel is also one of the few major household expenses displayed in giant numbers beside the road, making every overnight change immediately visible. When gasoline falls several cents at once, drivers notice the difference long before it appears in broader inflation statistics or monthly household budgets.
Falling U.S. Crude and Gasoline Futures Are Part of the Story
The forecast arrives after a significant retreat in North American energy markets. West Texas Intermediate crude settled Friday at US$92.41 a barrel, down $2.20 or 2.3% for the day. WTI ended the week roughly 8% lower. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 2.1% Friday to US$104.32. U.S. gasoline futures also dropped by around 4% during Friday trading.
That matters because crude and wholesale gasoline costs eventually feed through to Canadian pump prices, although the connection is neither instant nor perfectly proportional. Natural Resources Canada identifies crude costs, refining margins, transportation, inventories, local supply, taxes and retail competition as major components of gasoline pricing. Friday’s market decline therefore created room for lower retail benchmarks heading into the weekend. The particularly sharp weakness in WTI also matters to the Canadian market because North American crude and refined-product prices are closely connected, even while individual Canadian cities operate with very different taxes, transportation costs and regional supply conditions.
GTA Drivers Could See the Benchmark Fall to 181.9¢
The GTA’s projected seven-cent decline would take regular gasoline to 181.9 cents per litre on Sunday, reversing Saturday’s one-cent increase. Canadians for Affordable Energy had Friday’s benchmark at 187.9 cents before forecasting 188.9 cents Saturday and then the much larger retreat for Sunday. That three-day pattern captures just how quickly pump-price direction can change when wholesale markets are volatile.
For a driver who postponed a 50-litre fill from Saturday to Sunday and encountered the full forecast decrease, the difference would be about $3.50. More importantly, 181.9 cents would put the GTA substantially below both Montreal and Vancouver based on the same Sunday forecast. Regional differences are normal in Canada because retail gasoline prices contain much more than the underlying barrel of crude. Tax structures, transportation costs, refinery access and local competition all influence the final number displayed at a station. Even within the GTA, some retailers may undercut the benchmark while others take longer to adjust.
Montreal Still Sits Above $2 Even After the Forecast Drop
Montreal is also forecast to receive a seven-cent reduction, taking regular gasoline from 209.9 cents per litre Saturday to 202.9 cents Sunday. The decline essentially reverses more than the one-cent increase forecast for Saturday and brings the benchmark closer to the two-dollar threshold, but it does not quite take Montreal below it.
That distinction matters psychologically as well as financially. Prices beginning with “2” can make a routine fill feel significantly more expensive even when the actual gap between markets is measured in only a few dozen cents per litre. At Sunday’s forecast levels, a 50-litre purchase at Montreal’s 202.9-cent benchmark would cost about $101.45. The same 50 litres at the GTA benchmark would cost approximately $90.95, a difference of $10.50. Natural Resources Canada notes that regional gasoline gaps can reflect provincial and local taxes, transportation expenses, wholesale supply conditions and competition. Montreal therefore can remain substantially more expensive than Toronto even when both markets experience the same seven-cent daily decline.
Vancouver’s Seven-Cent Relief Still Leaves the Highest Benchmark
Vancouver’s forecast tells a similar story. Regular gasoline is expected to fall seven cents from 211.9 cents per litre Saturday to 204.9 cents Sunday. That follows a two-cent decline from Friday’s forecast level of 213.9 cents, meaning the Sunday move would extend rather than reverse the immediate direction of prices. Among the four major markets in the Sunday forecast, Vancouver would still carry the highest regular-gas benchmark.
The gap reflects structural differences that do not disappear simply because wholesale gasoline falls for a day. British Columbia maintains a motor fuel tax system that includes dedicated regional charges in certain areas, including taxes connected to TransLink in the South Coast region. Transportation, refinery economics and local supply also influence what ultimately appears on station signs. As a result, a seven-cent decline can provide real relief without suddenly making Vancouver inexpensive relative to other Canadian cities. At 204.9 cents per litre, a 50-litre purchase would still cost roughly $102.45, almost $18 more than the same volume at Calgary’s forecast Sunday benchmark.
Calgary Gets the Largest Forecast Cut
Calgary stands out because its projected decline is eight cents rather than seven. Canadians for Affordable Energy forecasts regular gasoline moving from 176.9 cents per litre Saturday to 168.9 cents Sunday. Premium is also projected to fall eight cents, while diesel is expected to decline by the same amount. The regular-gas benchmark had already dropped two cents Friday before remaining unchanged Saturday.
At 168.9 cents, Calgary would have the lowest Sunday forecast among the four cities highlighted. A 50-litre fill would cost about $84.45 at that benchmark, compared with approximately $90.95 in the GTA, $101.45 in Montreal and $102.45 in Vancouver. Those differences show why national headlines about gasoline can hide very different local experiences. Crude prices may establish the broad direction, but Canadians do not purchase fuel from a single national market. Each city has its own combination of wholesale supply routes, retail competition, transportation costs and taxes, producing substantial regional gaps even when several cities move downward on the same day.
Diesel Does Not Move the Same Way Everywhere
The Sunday forecast also provides a reminder that a gasoline decline does not automatically mean every petroleum product falls by the same amount. In the GTA, regular and premium gasoline are each forecast to drop seven cents, but diesel is projected to decline only two cents, from 246.9 to 244.9 cents per litre. Montreal shows the same pattern, with diesel expected to fall two cents to 277.9.
Vancouver diesel is forecast to decline three cents, from 285.9 to 282.9 cents per litre, even while regular and premium fall seven cents. Calgary is the exception: regular, premium and diesel are all projected to decline eight cents. Refined products can move differently because gasoline and diesel have separate supply-and-demand conditions and wholesale markets. That distinction is important for trucking companies and diesel-vehicle owners, who may not receive the same relief seen by gasoline drivers. It also helps explain why looking only at crude oil prices can give an incomplete picture of what happens at Canadian pumps.
Why Sunday’s Relief Could Still Prove Temporary
The biggest reason for caution is that the energy market remains unusually sensitive to developments outside Canada. Friday’s crude decline was partly driven by hopes that U.S.-Iran negotiations could produce a path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reducing supply risks. Reuters reported that before the current conflict, roughly one-fifth of global oil supply moved through the strait, making developments there extremely important for crude pricing.
The picture changed again Saturday when U.S. President Donald Trump said he had rejected an Iranian proposal that included reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending fighting within seven days. That does not cancel Sunday’s Canadian gasoline forecast, which reflects price movements already working through wholesale markets, but it adds uncertainty to what comes afterward. Natural Resources Canada notes that world events, refinery disruptions, inventories and local supply changes can all cause gasoline prices to move rapidly. Sunday may therefore deliver meaningful relief at Canadian pumps without signalling the end of the volatility that has defined much of 2026.
