Canadian motorists who expected the end of summer to bring cheaper fuel are instead facing another jolt at the pump. The national average for regular gasoline climbed by more than three cents in a day to roughly $1.80 per litre, according to GasBuddy data cited by The Canadian Press, while a leading petroleum analyst warned prices could reach between $1.82 and $1.85 within the next week or two.
The timing is particularly uncomfortable. Gasoline prices normally receive some relief after Labour Day as driving demand eases and refiners prepare less expensive winter-grade fuel. This year, renewed turmoil around the Strait of Hormuz has sent international crude prices back above US$100 a barrel, overwhelming much of that seasonal advantage. Diesel is also climbing, raising concerns well beyond household commuting costs.
The Sudden Jump Has Put $1.80 Back in Focus
The latest increase was sharp enough to be noticed even in a fuel market that has already endured an unusually volatile year. GasBuddy data cited by The Canadian Press put the Canadian average for regular gasoline at almost $1.80 per litre after an increase of more than three cents from the previous day. Other national price trackers can produce somewhat different readings because they update at different times and use different data sources, but the direction has been unmistakable: fuel has become substantially more expensive again.
The change becomes clearer when compared with recent history. CAA’s national data showed averages of 172.9 cents per litre a week earlier, 162.9 cents a month earlier and 140.9 cents one year earlier. For a driver putting 50 litres into a vehicle, a 17-cent increase from roughly $1.63 to $1.80 adds about $8.50 to one fill. That may not transform a household budget by itself, but repeated fills quickly turn a few cents per litre into a noticeable monthly expense.
$1.85 Is No Longer a Distant Scenario
Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, said Canada’s national average could rise into the $1.82-to-$1.85-per-litre range within the next week or two. That forecast matters because the latest increase is not being treated simply as a one-day pricing anomaly. The underlying international market has become more expensive, leaving wholesalers and retailers exposed to higher replacement costs even as Canadian consumers search for cheaper stations.
At $1.85 per litre, filling a 50-litre tank would cost $92.50. At $1.65, the same fill would cost $82.50—a $10 difference each time. For households with two vehicles, long rural commutes or regular highway travel, those differences accumulate rapidly. Even so, $1.85 would not necessarily represent the national high for 2026. CAA data show its Canadian benchmark reached 190.4 cents per litre on May 6. The immediate concern is therefore less about setting a new record than about another sustained period of unusually expensive gasoline heading into autumn.
Crude Oil Above US$100 Is Driving the Pressure
Canadian service stations may be thousands of kilometres from the Persian Gulf, but gasoline is produced and priced inside an interconnected global energy market. Brent crude climbed above US$100 a barrel on September 9 as escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities and attacks involving energy infrastructure renewed fears about supplies. Reuters reported Brent had risen roughly 25% over the preceding month, illustrating how quickly geopolitical risk had been rebuilt into oil prices after an earlier period of relative calm.
Natural Resources Canada identifies crude oil as the single most important driver of major gasoline-price movements, although refining costs, inventories, transportation, local competition and taxes also matter. That explains why crude prices do not translate into an identical pump-price movement everywhere or instantaneously. Refiners must buy feedstock, wholesalers must price replacement fuel and retailers eventually adjust what appears on roadside signs. When international crude moves sharply higher for several sessions, however, there is usually little room for Canadian gasoline prices to remain unaffected for long.
The Strait of Hormuz Gives the Crisis Global Reach
The Strait of Hormuz is not simply another shipping lane. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that about 20.9 million barrels of petroleum liquids passed through it each day during the first half of 2025, equivalent to roughly 20% of worldwide petroleum-liquids consumption. That extraordinary concentration makes conflict around the narrow waterway capable of moving crude prices in Canada even when Canadian oil production itself is not directly threatened.
There are alternatives, but they cannot fully replace the strait. The EIA estimates major Saudi and United Arab Emirates pipelines together provide roughly 4.7 million barrels per day of potential bypass capacity, only a fraction of the volumes normally moving through Hormuz. Markets therefore react not only to actual barrels lost but also to the possibility of further shipping interruptions, attacks or higher insurance and freight costs. The latest escalation has reinforced that risk premium. For Canadian drivers, the result is an uncomfortable reality: military developments half a world away can affect the price displayed at a neighbourhood filling station within days.
The Usual Post-Summer Price Break Is Being Disrupted
September normally provides drivers with at least two reasons for optimism. The high-demand summer driving season winds down after Labour Day, reducing gasoline consumption, while refiners begin moving toward winter-grade gasoline that is generally less expensive to manufacture. De Haan noted that those forces would ordinarily give pump prices a downward push at this stage of the year. In 2026, he warned Canadians may receive much less of that benefit.
That distinction is important because seasonal relief has not disappeared as an economic force; it is being overwhelmed by something larger. If crude prices were stable or falling, weaker autumn demand and cheaper fuel specifications could still pull retail prices lower. Instead, crude’s renewed climb above US$100 has been pushing in the opposite direction. The result may be a tug-of-war visible from one day to the next—some cities could experience temporary declines while the national market remains elevated. Drivers may therefore see occasional cheaper mornings without getting the broader autumn price retreat normally expected.
Where Canadians Live Still Makes an Enormous Difference
A national average can disguise extraordinary regional differences. Around September 9 and 10, price forecasts and tracking data from Canadians for Affordable Energy showed regular gasoline near 187.9 cents per litre in Toronto and 207.9 cents in Victoria, while Edmonton was around 169.9 cents. Winnipeg was listed near 155.9 cents in the latest available daily figures. Montreal-area prices were also running around or above $2 per litre depending on the source, station and exact time of measurement.
Those gaps are not unusual. Natural Resources Canada says regional gasoline differences reflect provincial and municipal taxation, transportation costs, local competition, sales volumes and station location, among other factors. A 30-cent regional difference means $15 on a 50-litre fill, making geography almost as important as the national trend for individual motorists. It also explains why a headline saying Canada is approaching $1.80 can sound almost mild in cities already paying above $2, while drivers in some Prairie markets may still see prices considerably below the headline average.
Diesel Could Create a Bigger Economic Ripple
For many households, gasoline is the price visible on the commute. For the wider economy, diesel may become the more consequential problem. De Haan warned diesel could rise another five to 10 cents per litre as international supply pressures continue. Toronto’s September 10 price forecast placed diesel around 236.9 cents per litre, with a higher forecast for the next day, while Victoria was around 275.9 cents. Those figures show why transportation-intensive businesses are watching the market so closely.
The timing also coincides with the fall harvest, when Canadian farmers depend heavily on diesel-powered tractors, combines and trucks. Unlike a commuter who may cancel a discretionary trip, a farm cannot simply postpone harvesting a mature crop because fuel is expensive. Freight carriers face similar limitations when stores and factories still need deliveries. Higher diesel bills can therefore migrate through supply chains in the form of transportation costs, fuel surcharges or thinner business margins. The pump shock can eventually become a grocery, construction or delivery-cost issue rather than remaining purely an automotive expense.
Gasoline Is Back at the Centre of Canada’s Inflation Risk
The Bank of Canada already has evidence of how quickly an energy shock can influence headline inflation. In its July Monetary Policy Report, the central bank said higher gasoline prices had pushed inflation sharply higher earlier in 2026. It estimated the peak direct impact of higher gasoline prices added roughly 1.4 percentage points to inflation during the second quarter, while war-related supply costs were also beginning to work their way through businesses.
That July outlook assumed oil prices around US$75 per barrel and expected gasoline refining margins to narrow. Brent moving back above US$100 introduces renewed upside risk relative to those assumptions. The Bank had already emphasized that its inflation projection depended heavily on developments in the Middle East. Higher gasoline shows up directly in the consumer price index, while expensive diesel, shipping and production can exert indirect pressure on other goods and services. A prolonged energy rebound therefore matters not only to drivers but also to interest-rate expectations, household purchasing power and the broader Canadian economy.
Ottawa’s Fuel-Tax Relief Is Cushioning, Not Eliminating, the Shock
The latest price increase is occurring while Ottawa is providing an unusually large temporary fuel-tax break. The federal government suspended the normal excise tax of 10 cents per litre on gasoline and four cents on diesel beginning in April as energy costs surged. In September, it extended the suspension through January 31, 2027, with half of the normal rates scheduled to apply during February and March.
For a 50-litre gasoline purchase, the government’s stated 10-cent-per-litre relief represents about $5 before considering interactions with percentage-based sales taxes. Yet the national average has still moved toward $1.80 because taxes are only one part of the retail price. Crude costs, refining margins, distribution, inventories and retail conditions continue to move independently. The situation illustrates both the usefulness and the limitations of tax relief: removing a fixed charge can soften the bill Canadians face, but it cannot prevent international crude markets from adding considerably more when global supplies become threatened.
What Happens Next Will Depend Heavily on Oil and the Middle East
The $1.85 forecast should be viewed as a near-term possibility rather than a guaranteed destination. If crude prices retreat, shipping risks ease and refineries complete the normal transition toward winter gasoline, Canadian motorists could regain some of the seasonal price relief that has been delayed. Local markets can also reverse quickly. Toronto, for example, was forecast to experience a notable one-day gasoline decline after its September 10 increase, illustrating how wholesale movements can produce abrupt changes at individual city pumps.
The opposite risk is equally clear. Continued attacks on tankers or energy facilities, deeper disruption around Hormuz, tighter refined-product inventories or another jump in crude could keep gasoline elevated and make $1.82-to-$1.85 less of a ceiling than a waypoint. Natural Resources Canada notes that global supply disruptions, refinery problems and inventories can all influence retail fuel prices. For now, the most important number may not be the price posted at a Canadian station on any single morning, but the price of crude oil and the security of the shipping routes supplying the global market.
